China v. Taiwan (Next global war?)
Overview:
China has made no secret of its plans to annex Taiwan and the rest of the world ha made no secret of its opposition to such a move. This could be the end of the article right here, but how serious are the Chinese? Have they made any efforts to prepare for such a move? Has the rest of the world made any moves to show solidarity with Taiwan? How likely is the rest of the world to respond to a military move against Taiwan? And what kind of a time table are we looking at for such a historical event to take place?
Taiwan is an island nation off the coast of China, Taiwan is a relatively free democracy and has an extremely prosperous economy. They are one of the main suppliers of microchips to other industrialized nations including the US, Japan, and Australia. It is also important to state that the ocean is extremely deep of the south side of the island.
Reasons why Taiwan may be the flashpoint where WW4 is kicked off (or WW3 if you don’t count the global war on terror WW3)
China believes that Taiwan is actually part of china and has long argued and advocated for a re-unification with Taiwan and the mainland. If China where to do this, it would allow China to enjoy the following benefits:
- *An incredibly significant symbolic victory for the government of China.
- *It would give them a strategic monopoly on computer chip production allowing them more leverage in international trade negotiations.
- *grant them access to off shore deep water that would enable them to covertly launch submarines.
- *Deny the west a close foothold with which to base intelligence gathering operations
- *Provide for a military forward base for engaging other future military conquests.
- *Prevent China from having a capitalistic democracies success constantly rubbed in their noses.
- *Shift the balance of economic and geopolitical power in Chinas favor.
- *Fulfill a long held belief that Taiwan is actually part of China (the importance of this point cant be emphasized enough. )
Of courses each of these advantage for china creates disadvantages for the America and her allies. Japan sees the military takeover of Taiwan as a direct threat to Japan. Japan has said that if Taiwan is attacked, japan will consider it an attack on Japan.
Australia also sees Chinas Taiwanese ambitions as a potential threat to Australia. And then of course there is the USA, who has always been a back of an independent Taiwan. The USA has a close trade relationship with Taiwan with regards to microchips. A Chinese controlled Taiwan would be a strategic hit to the US as there is very little that can be manufactured apart for taiwanese computer chips. Also the US Intelligence satellite enjoys a clear view into Chinese submarine operations right now thanks to Chinas shallow water ports, a Chinese controlled Taiwan would strip the USA and her allies of this strategic intelligence advantage.
So, let’s say (as a mental exercise) China moves to annex Taiwan. What happens then? Well several things are likely to happen:
While Taiwan does not have the forces required to repel a Chinese incursion, and would ultimately fall to China with out international support, IT could strike back at the 3 gorges dam, which would cause economic and internal political devastation to China as well as disrupt the international supply chain (way more then it is already.)
Japan has said that they would responded militarily in Taiwans defense, and they have the capability to reach out and touch the three gorges dam. Incidentally though, China has said that any move by Japan to interfere in the Chinese annexation of Taiwan would be responded to with nuclear weapons.
As to the US response, that is up in the air a but and depends on the administration at the time. The USA may get involved directly, or the USA may stay out of it as long as it is just Taiwan and China involved.
Then there is Australia, they will also probably try to stay out of the way, unless directly threatened, however, once Japan and/or the US is involved, i think we can expect to see Australia become involved. If the US and/or Australia becomes involved, then we can also expect Russia to become involved to back up China. If this happens Romania will also most likely join the war on behalf of the USA.
Also If Australia joins the fight, we can expect the UK to join as well with the exception of Canada. Canada may actually stay neutral, or come out on the side of China.
Given that the USA would likely defend Taiwan and would absolutely defend Japan (which has said will defend Taiwan even though China has said they will respond overwhelmingly if japan does intercede on Taiwans behalf), and also given that Chinas military doctrine is one of overwhelming and decapitating first strike, I think we can expect that an attempt to annex Taiwan will be ether closely proceeded or followed by an attempt to decapitate and disable the USA and Japan with ether a cyber attack against the grid and communication infrastructures, and or an HEMP attack, China may or may not follow up with a land invasion of the said countries after bringing Taiwan to heel.
Are the countries potentially involved acting as if war is on the horizon?
The short answer is: YES! specifically though China has made the following moves consistent with an expected near peer conflict:
- *China Tells its troops to “focus on preparing for war”
- *China tells its people to stock pile food
- *China order that civilian ships be convertible for military use
- *China orders that vasectomies be limited in order to grow population (this would be *consistent with expectations of loosing population in battle)
- *China is developing first strike weapons such as hypersonic glide missiles
- *China focused on upgrading their military quickly
- *China conducts military exercises with potential allies
- *China and Russian navy ships circle Japan
- *China is building mock US military ships (presumably to practice against) in the desert
- *China has built mock copies of cities around the world including cities as obscure as *Jackson Hole Wyoming
- *China is not only rapidly expanding their navy, but also their international naval bases.
- *Chinese defense minister Defense Minister Gen. Wei Fenghe has advocated for the invasion of the continental USA for its resources.
- *China wrote a book about how to destroy America
- *China has in recent history been “preparing the battle field”:
- *Chinas general expansionistic “Belt and Road initiative”
- *China has started to attempt to culturally separate it self from the west by:
Is the rest of the world taking China seriously?
Again the answer is “Yes” and the following showcase some of the steps we are taking to deal with China:
CIA starts new unit to focus on China
Recently we conducted an unprecedented drill where by A-10 warthogs would take off and land on US highways. The significance of this can not be underscored enough. A-10 warthogs are used for CAS (close air support), in other words they are used when there is an enemy closely advancing on your position and pinning you down and you need close air support to take them out. The fact that they are practicing taking off and landing, (ie flight operations) on US highways, means they are practicing to operate WITHOUT operational air fields in the continental US.
The same exercise was conducted with C-130s which can also be used for CAS as well as as other combat support missions.
US and potential allies enter into an urgent nuclear submarine building agreement.
US practices island assault operations against a “Red team” wearing Chinese lookalike uniforms
Should we be taking China seriously?
Again, i believe that YES, we should absolutely be taking china seriously! But what should we do? how should this change our lives? Well in order to answer that question, i think it is good to look at Chinas likely strategy. China does not want to face off against a near peer challenger like the US, however they are bound and determined to to at least annex Taiwan. So how will China do this, they will give the USA something bigger to worry about then little-ol-Taiwan. They will strike at what they know to be the USA’s tender underbelly, her power grid. They might do this one of 2 different ways, EMP or Cyber attack. My money is on a cyber attack as it is less traceable to prove that they did it, and it does not have the international political baggage that using nuclear weapons has. Also, as i referenced above, they have already done some ground work to prepare to take down our grid. My guess is that China will attack our grid a mere hours BEFORE attacking Taiwan in hopes that we will be too distracted with our grid issues to respond to Taiwan. Russia may attack the Ukraine at the same time to even further split the USAs attention (Russia has the same the same designs on Ukraine as China does on Taiwan).
After China has brought Taiwan to heel, China may or may not follow up with a land invasion of the continental USA as they have long envied our natural resources. The attack could come from the sea via their ever growing navy, by air, or by land via Canada, or Mexico.
So what does this mean for the individual US citizen? I believe that given the current situation, the following steps are prudent:
- Move out of the cities and away from potential military targets (look at this map and article).
- Get as much of a food cache as you can, 6 months to 2 years or more
- Make sure you have a water source and a way of treating it
- Make sure you have a back up energy source
- Make sure you can be part of the fulfillment of Admiral Yamamoto’s warning of an armed American behind every blade of grass
- Be on a civilian war footing, plant victory gardens, maintain situational awareness, and report anything out of place to authorities.
for more investigation:
https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/us-military-is-preparing-for-new-wars-china-russia/
https://thediplomat.com/2021/08/why-taiwan-matters-to-the-united-states/